KISHTWAR, Sep 1: Independent meteorologist Engineer Salman Wahid has urged authorities and residents in the high-altitude areas of Paddar, Warwan and Marwa in Kishtwar district to remain alert to the potential risks associated with glacial lakes, particularly during unusually warm weather in September and October.
Engineer Salman Wahid said that persistently above-normal temperatures at higher elevations could accelerate the melting of glaciers and seasonal snow. This may gradually increase water levels in some glacial lakes and, depending on local conditions, place additional pressure on natural barriers holding the water.
However, he cautioned against interpreting the prevailing conditions as an indication of an imminent Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF). He said the probability of a sudden breach cannot be determined on the basis of temperature alone and remains dependent on several interacting factors.
“There is no need to panic, but there is a clear need for preparedness and continuous monitoring,” Wahid said.
He explained that authorities need to closely monitor the size and growth of glacial lakes, glacier melting, avalanches, landslides, rockfalls, changes near lake outlets and the stability of surrounding terrain to assess the actual level of risk.
Wahid also highlighted the possible role of seismic activity in vulnerable mountainous areas. He said an earthquake of magnitude 6 or above could, under certain circumstances, destabilise mountain slopes, glaciers or surrounding terrain. If a strong earthquake triggers major landslides, rockfalls or ice-rock avalanches entering a vulnerable glacial lake, the risk of a sudden outburst could potentially increase.
At the same time, he clarified that an earthquake above magnitude 6 does not automatically mean that a glacial lake will burst, as the impact would depend on the earthquake’s location, depth, intensity and local geological conditions.
Wahid called for sustained scientific monitoring of vulnerable glacial lakes through satellite observations, field inspections and effective early-warning systems. He also urged local administrations to strengthen emergency preparedness and ensure timely dissemination of verified information to communities living in potentially affected areas.
He appealed to residents to remain vigilant, follow advisories issued by competent authorities and avoid spreading unverified information or rumours regarding possible GLOF events.