JAMMU / NEW DELHI, Jul 30: The Central Government on Thursday clarified that there is no officially defined category known as a “Super El Niño” under the classifications of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) or the India Meteorological Department (IMD). The clarification was made in the Rajya Sabha by Minister of State (Independent Charge) for Earth Sciences Dr. Jitendra Singh in a written reply to a parliamentary question.
The Minister informed the House that El Niño events are operationally classified as weak, moderate, strong, or very strong, depending on the magnitude of sea surface temperature anomalies over the equatorial central Pacific Ocean. According to the IMD, El Niño conditions are expected to develop during the 2026 southwest monsoon season.
Dr. Singh stated that El Niño conditions remained weak during June 2026 but intensified to moderate levels in July 2026. He added that current forecasts indicate the phenomenon is likely to strengthen further during the October–December 2026 period and may reach the very strong category. However, he emphasized that its exact intensity and impact on the Indian region will depend on the evolution of coupled ocean-atmosphere conditions, of which El Niño is only one influencing factor.
The Minister said the India Meteorological Department is continuously monitoring changes in oceanic and atmospheric conditions and regularly issues seasonal, monthly and extended-range forecasts to the Central and State Governments and other stakeholders. These forecasts help authorities assess potential weather-related risks and plan timely response measures.
He further informed Parliament that the IMD also issues Impact-Based Forecasts (IBFs) and risk-based weather warnings on a daily basis, with forecasts valid for the next seven days. These advisories are disseminated through multiple communication channels to disaster management authorities, State Governments, district administrations and other agencies to strengthen preparedness and minimize the impact of adverse weather events.
The Government reiterated that it will continue to closely monitor the evolving El Niño conditions and provide timely forecasts and advisories to support agriculture, disaster management and public safety during the ongoing monsoon season.